The Odds of a Solana (SOL) ETF Listing in the United States
In recent months, there has been significant buzz surrounding the potential listing of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. While many have speculated about the likelihood of such an event occurring, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, believes that the odds are even higher than some may think.
Polymarket’s Forecast: 77% Chance of a US Solana ETF Listing
According to Polymarket, a popular cryptocurrency prediction platform, the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 were around 77% as of January 1. However, Sigel has described this forecast as "underpriced," suggesting that he believes the actual probability is even higher.
The Impact of President-elect Trump’s Win
Sigel’s optimism mirrors industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US following President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Trump, a pro-crypto individual, has stated his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital," which has led many to believe that he will be supportive of cryptocurrency-related initiatives.
How Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. In the case of Polymarket, the platform has seen a significant increase in trading volume and interest in crypto-related predictions.
Polymarket’s Projected Odds: 84% as of January 2
As of January 2, Polymarket’s projected odds for a US Solana ETF listing had increased to approximately 84%, according to its website. This represents a significant jump from the initial forecast and suggests that market sentiment is leaning in favor of a listing.
Industry Analysts See Trump’s Win as a Green Light
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs. However, their plans were reportedly challenged by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in August, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.
The Challenge of Conforming to a Similar Structure
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. However, success may hinge on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to a similar structure used by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs, which are the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges.
VanEck’s Head of Research Sees Overwhelmingly High Odds
In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 were now "overwhelmingly high." This reflects his confidence in the likelihood of a Solana ETF listing and suggests that market sentiment is leaning in favor of such an event.
Bullish Bettors Flock to Polymarket
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Bettors See 2025 as a Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. This reflects market sentiment and suggests that investors are optimistic about the future prospects of the cryptocurrency industry.
Conclusion
The odds of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are even higher than a popular betting market’s optimistic forecast, according to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research. With industry analysts seeing Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more crypto ETF listings and Polymarket’s projected odds increasing to 84%, it is clear that market sentiment is leaning in favor of such an event. As the year unfolds, investors will be closely watching developments in the cryptocurrency space and waiting to see if a Solana ETF listing becomes a reality.
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